Description

This analysis provides a forecast of QQQ prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 525.526334 558.802443 593.375350 632.037687 674.139228 718.676112 769.455675
2026-02-08 484.709416 530.699415 580.392682 638.292929 704.172866 777.117571 864.433426
2026-02-15 455.822829 509.088094 568.209718 639.095998 722.304716 817.529792 935.689409
2026-02-22 433.196124 491.710547 558.104491 639.625447 737.861326 853.500947 1001.545980
2026-03-01 416.051061 478.885890 551.556255 642.662905 755.035001 890.711845 1069.429249
2026-03-08 399.265223 465.129620 542.574517 641.454054 765.948979 919.710091 1127.547256
2026-03-15 385.633325 454.190716 536.028732 642.286812 778.655079 950.705999 1189.046584
2026-03-22 373.102497 443.808088 529.377438 642.203539 789.584012 979.262438 1248.187518
2026-03-29 362.105600 434.696829 523.676301 642.701215 800.794719 1008.149583 1308.775156
2026-04-05 353.519297 428.136737 520.728951 646.326471 815.888204 1042.468856 1378.350400
2026-04-12 344.260055 420.262641 515.632994 646.663308 826.238112 1070.398944 1439.987360
2026-04-19 337.796671 415.663966 514.471309 651.980682 843.326017 1108.142727 1517.739440
2026-04-26 331.816748 411.472733 513.655977 657.668727 861.100244 1147.658139 1600.610869
2026-05-03 326.650994 408.110037 513.717159 664.401873 880.432566 1190.115869 1690.396711
2026-05-10 319.617311 401.972927 509.747917 665.225356 891.107606 1220.083588 1762.204475
2026-05-17 312.925617 396.041707 505.788660 665.788056 901.237198 1249.465037 1834.612272
2026-05-24 307.564757 391.710014 503.814315 668.991980 915.232805 1285.179237 1919.420201
2026-05-31 300.962047 385.454620 498.925606 667.716685 922.308978 1310.300589 1987.846771
2026-06-07 295.435573 380.498429 495.652913 668.595275 932.554572 1340.703335 2067.052718
2026-06-14 289.875847 375.318354 491.867620 668.507420 941.182877 1368.750298 2143.776307
2026-06-21 284.785179 370.636661 488.616236 669.032509 950.672892 1398.484114 2225.309777
2026-06-28 280.963800 367.620547 487.625770 672.857668 965.420762 1437.461668 2326.261874
2026-07-05 276.258738 363.210150 484.463633 673.213099 974.535840 1467.297226 2412.113453